BANK Negara’s decision to raise the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points on March 4 must have jolted many people out of their slumber into realising that the days of low lending rates may be numbered.

While some Malaysians, especially those who are risk-averse and prefer to keep their savings in banks, are rejoicing that interest rates on deposits are on the way up, there are those who must be apprehensive that they will have to fork out higher loan interest payments.

Those in the second group, including corporate and retail borrowers, should recognise that the low interest rates that they had been enjoying for close to two years came at a cost.

Malaysians generally have a high propensity to save and the all-time low interest rates have been frowned upon by savers, especially the retirees who are mostly dependent on their interest income to get by in their golden years.

It is only fair that they be compensated for their prudence – a strong trait among Asians that may have saved the region from further financial quagmire brought on by a widening sovereign debt crisis in some western economies.

The recent OPR hike will certainly not be the only adjustment by the central bank, considering the country’s lending rates are still at record lows.

We can expect more upward adjustments in the coming months as there is still room for rates to rise at least another 50 basis points should Bank Negara act in response to a stronger local economy.

Normalising the interest rates by allowing it to be decided by actual market forces of demand and supply is certainly more healthy.

Although there are now more avenues to invest one’s savings, property is clearly a favourite.

Most of the big property companies are raking in record sales and some of the projects, especially those in Penang and the Klang Valley, are once again selling like “hot cakes”.

Although there is no property bubble – a situation where prices escalate to artificially high levels that do not reflect the actual market fundamentals of demand and supply – there may be a chance of this happening if we are not careful.

We only have to look at the many condominium blocks in the Kuala Lumpur City Centre locality. Their prices have fallen by up to 30% as demand for high-rise residences is still quite lethargic, with no signs of a recovery anytime soon.

The huge price correction can be attributed to a high percentage of investors and speculators in that market segment compared with the owner-occupier buyers.

Hence, there is a need to rein in speculation in our property market. Higher interest rates also signify confidence that the market will hold out well.

It will complement the move to reinstate the real property gains tax, albeit at a flat 5% for all property sales within the first five years of purchase.

Curbing excessive speculation will help prevent overheating in the market.

Property prices should be determined by actual demand and supply forces and not by artificial means.

PETALING JAYA: Financial institutions, in particular banks, have in general agreed to raise mortgage lending yields, which will have an impact of increasing their net interest margins (NIMs).

An analyst with OSK Research said banks with strong mortgage lending growth would be the key beneficiaries, while the eventual increase in benchmark interest rates would benefit all banks on a greater scale as loan assets tended to re-price faster than deposits.

He said higher home loan rates were imminent and expected housing loan rates to trend upwards in the not-so-distant future as the banking industry moved towards risk-based pricing in determining more sustainable interest rates for the industry.

The upswing in home loan rates is inevitable as economic conditions improve.

“The pricing war among banks earlier this year had brought housing loan interest rates to a level that was below or near the cost of funds and was not sustainable. With early signs of economic recovery, the rates are bound to increase,” he noted.

The average lending rate (ALR) rose to 4.91% in September from 4.9% in August. The current average base lending rate (BLR) is 5.51%. With home loan rates improving, OSK Research has maintained an “overweight” call on the banking sector.

“We are maintaining an ‘overweight’ call on the sector on the grounds that non-performing loans are likely to be benign.

“Meanwhile, the downtrend in provisions and strong capitalisation positions should provide future earnings and capital management upside surprises, which may not be fully reflected in banks’ valuations,” he said.

The analyst said the banking sector was currently trading at a mid-cycle price-to-book value of 1.68 times.

An analyst with HwangDBS Vickers Research also said mortgage rates needed to be increased to remove irrational price competition.

“Rate hikes are positive for banks,” he said, adding that for now, the price change would mainly affect the secondary property market, leaving the primary market unscathed.

“Pricing power depends on banks’ cost structure and incidences of default. We believe banks will price products based on risk,” he said, adding that margins were now extremely thin.

The analyst said banks were barely breaking even with irrational competitive pricing for mortgage products. “At BLR minus 2.4%, it effectively takes banks at least two to three years to break even. The BLR now stands at 5.55%, while average cost of funds for banks was about 2%.

“Taking into account implied costs set aside for credit default ranging from 20 basis points (bps) to 30bps, coupled with overhead costs (agent’s commission and fees) another 30bps, net yield gain on a mortgage loan was merely 1%.

“Rate levels are already at an all-time low. We believe it is a matter of time before rates pick up,” he noted.

The HwangDBS analyst said pricing power was within the perogative of the individual banks.

“Every bank will price products based on their respective cost structure and also incidences of default.

“While we agree that mortgage pricing has reached a level of irrationality, we believe banks will price products based on risk,” he said.

For instance, if a customer had a healthy credit profile, it was possible for the bank to offer him an attractive rate, he said, adding: “From our checks, we understand the pricing change affects the secondary market, while the primary market is left unscathed at this juncture.”

On the evolving banking landscape, the analyst said the overnight policy rate was anticipated to rise in the third quarter of 2010. This is in line with the stronger-than-expected growth (HwangDBS forecast of 5% versus official forecast of just 2% to 3%) as well as inflation trending toward 2.3% to 2.5% by July 2010.

“We are looking at 25bps in the third quarter 2010 and another 25bps in the fourth quarter. With the re-pricing of loans quicker than deposits, the impact would generally be positive on NIM,” he said.

The analyst said banks with positive impact on rate hikes were Hong Leong Bank Bhd and RHB Capital Bhd by virtue of their higher proportion of variable rate loans.

However, he said, Public Bank Bhd’s mortgage loan volumes might dwindle but the reseach house expected higher rates should more than neutralise this impact.

On the property sector, a HwangDBS property analyst said the rate hike had a double whammy. “The mass developers should not be adversely impacted due to resilient demand.”

However, with banks standardising mortgage rates and eliminating zero-entry cost packages for secondary market transactions, it will dent sentiment.

The analyst said the banks had agreed to end the mortgage price war. “We understand some banks have started to raise mortgage rates for new applications since this week.

“Mortgage rates have been standardised to BLR minus 1.8% from BLR minus 2.3%, while banks are no longer funding upfront costs such as legal fees and other costs.”

PETALING JAYA: Potential house buyers are still wary about making property purchases despite lower mortgage rates as the economic outlook remains uncertain, analysts said.

Average mortgage rates have fallen to about 3.5%, but at the same time banks have been more stringent on the approval of loans. The average mortgage rate is obtained from base lending rate (BLR) of 5.55% minus 1.5% to 2.4% for housing loans (or effective annual rates between 3.15% and 4.05%), depending on the amount and tenure of loans, and the package customers sign up for.

OSK Research said the attraction of lower mortgage rates had been superseded by fears of income security amid a deteriorating economic outlook.

“For those who are still financially sound, most would rather wait a while longer to snatch up better bargains a few more months down the road. Some are hoping for developers to come up with more creative and attractive perks and some are also waiting for prices to drop further, if any, before they are convinced to buy,” the OSK analyst told StarBiz.

The research house said downside risk for landed properties appeared limited compared to luxury condominiums, with the demand for landed properties expected to return by year-end.

“Most of the homebuyers in this segment are cash-rich and not highly leveraged. Given the accommodative interest rates today, any forced-selling or foreclosures of properties like the one we saw during the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis will be limited in this downcycle,” it said.

OSK Research expects the demand for luxury condominiums to decline by 30% to 40% in 2010 from 2008, with luxury condo prices already currently down by 15% to 20%.

An analyst from Kenanga Research agrees that the bearish economic outlook is making potential buyers hesitant about buying properties now.

“What if this (sign of market recovery) is just one-off data? What we need is for the sentiment to improve,” she said, noting that only 60% of bookings had been translated to actual sales compared to almost 100% previously due to more stringent loan requirements.

Jupiter Securities Sdn Bhd head of research Pong Teng Siew said that with the mortgage rates of 3.5% and effective cost of funds of 1.5%, banks net interest margin should be about 2% now.

“But cost of funds for smaller banks such as EON Capital Bhd, RHB Capital Bhd, AMMB Holdings Bhd are higher (slightly over 2%) because of higher interest bearing liabilities,” he told StarBiz.

A house buyer contacted by StarBiz said his current mortgage loan interest rate was 3.15% for the first two years and 3.45% for the remaining tenure.

He recently signed up for a 20-year conventional home loan from Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd for the purchase of a double-storey house.

He is paying about RM1,700 per month for his RM300,000 loan.

His loan package included a one-time payment of RM2,500 for mortgage reducing term assurance, legal fees and stamp duty.

Other banks are offering similar mortgage rates.

For example, RHB Bank is charging BLR minus 2.1% for housing loans that range from RM250,001 to RM500,000, while Hong Leong Bank Bhd is offering BLR minus 2.2% for a RM300,000 mortgage loan.

Malayan Banking Bhd uses a property’s location as one of the criteria to determine interest rate, but is still offering rates in the region of BLR minus 2%.

All these banks have BLR of 5.55%.

Article: By K.C. LAW

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/4/29/business/3793031&sec=business

By LAALITHA HUNT, Tuesday November 3, 2009

PETALING JAYA: Average lending rates are on an uptick with banks possibly positioning themselves for a gradual increase in the rates for their long-term loans.

The monthly statistical bulletin released by Bank Negara for September showed that average lending rate (ALR) was 4.91% compared with 4.9% in August and 4.96% in July. The average base lending rate (BLR) remained unchanged at 5.51% as at Oct 15.

According to UOB Kay Hian Research’s latest update, one of the first loan segments to be impacted would be mortgages. The report said that financing for the purchase of residential properties, which comprise 27% of total loans in the banking system, would likely slow down due to the re-introduction of real property gains tax as part of the measures under Budget 2010.

Mortgage growth would also take a temporary adjustment due to a rise in effective lending rates as banks lowered their mortgage spreads, the research house added.

“Our market survey shows that mortgage spread has been reduced from the previous BLR minus 2%-2.3% to BLR minus 1.6%-1.9%,” the report said.

The rate increase was expected to mitigate the slower loans volume growth, the research house added.

“In this scenario, Public Bank would benefit the most from its strong loans growth supported by its strong branding and lower cost of funding,” the report said.

An analyst with another brokerage said he had heard reports of the rise in effective rates recently but declined to comment further. Banks, when contacted, declined comment on this matter.

Banking data for September continued to show strong credit demand from the household sector, leading to total loans growth of 7.2%.

Loan applications in the household sector amounted to RM23.2bil in September, compared with monthly average of RM22.8bil in the preceding eight months to August.

UOB Kay Hian Research noted that robust approvals in the six months to Sept 30 would sustain strong loans growth in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2010.

“However, potential slower property sales and credit card demand due to the new budget measures would likely lead to slower loans growth in the second half of 2010,” the report said.

The research house, however, maintains its “overweight” call for the banks as slower growth would be mitigated by the increase in effective lending rate.

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/11/3/business/5030022&sec=business

Very often there are people asking what is the Base Lending Rate (BLR)?

Base Lending Rate (BLR) is a minimum interest rate calculated by financial institutions based on a formula which takes into account the institutions cost of funds and other administrative costs. The BLR is almost always the same amongst major banks. Adjustments to the BLR are made by banks at the almost same time; although, the BLR does not adjust on any regular basis. The BLR is usually adjusted at the time in correlation to the adjustments of the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) which is determine by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) during Monetary Policy Meeting . Banks in some countries use the name “Prime Rate” or “Prime Lending Rate” to refer to their Base Lending Rate. On 1 November 1995, Bank Negara Malaysia (”BNM”) imposed a ceiling on the BLRs quoted by banking institutions. The ceiling rate would be determined by a formula. This framework was further revised on 1 September 1998 to enhance the speed of transmission of changes in BNM’s monetary policy (via revisions to intervention rate and Statutory Reserve Requirement to changes in the economy’s interest rate levels.

In general, the formula for the ceiling BLR is calculated as follows:

Ceiling BLR = Adjusted BNM Intervention Rate + Fixed administrative charge

The ceiling BLRs for commercial banks and finance companies are fundamentally different due to the way the Adjusted BNM Intervention Rate is interpreted:

• For commercial banks, the Adjusted BNM Intervention Rate = BNM Intervention Rate x 80% / (1-SRR%)

• For finance companies, the Adjusted BNM Intervention Rate = BNM Intervention Rate / (1-SRR%)

Commercial banks have a lower Adjusted BNM Intervention Rate (compared to finance companies) resulting in lower ceiling BLR as commercial banks have a relatively lower cost of funds. This is due to the presence of zero-interest current account balances.

In practice, the BNM Intervention Rate is taken as the prevailing BNM 3-month intervention rate (the previous month’s average KLIBOR was formerly used). BNM set the fixed administrative charge at 2.50% initially, but on 1 September 2008 lowered it to 2.25% in order to promote greater operational efficiency among banking institutions. Whenever BNM changes the intervention rate or the Statutory Reserve Requirement, banking institutions are given 1 week to adjust their BLR to comply with the new ceiling.